UPDATE: The CDC originally added to their death toll revision statement that the numbers were incomplete due to a lag. It was a notation that many websites didn’t pick up on when sharing the change from 60,000 to less than 38,000.
[LEAD STORIES] Other posts wrongly assumed the number reported in the media came from the column marked “Deaths with Pneumonia, Influenza or COVID.” This is also not correct.
At the bottom of the chart, the government explains the death toll is weeks behind, and the data “during this period are incomplete because of the lag.” The CDC further explains:
It is important to note that it can take several weeks for death records to be submitted to National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), processed, coded, and tabulated. Therefore, the data shown on this page may be incomplete, and will likely not include all deaths that occurred during a given time period, especially for the more recent time periods.
Why these numbers are different
Provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1-2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.
** ORIGINAL STORY **
The CDC just readjusted the COVID-19 death numbers. They’ve dropped significantly, causing many people to wonder what the heck is going on.
The number of Coronavirus dead went from 60,000 U.S. deaths to 37,000.
The more inflated number is being called a “gaffe” apparently, although there’s still some confusion as to what exactly this adjustment means.
Just like that, CDC reduces its #Coronavirus death count to 37,000. That’s nearly HALF the total they were peddling. Did 30,000 people spring back to life like Lazarus? No, this seems a “gaffe”—defined as a case of the CDC accidentally telling the truth https://t.co/fkrbxDbPem
— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) May 2, 2020
Regardless, this confusion is sure to further erode public trust in the “experts.”
The public was already leery after the projected 5 million deaths were whittled down to 200k and then whittle down to 60k.
That’s not to say we’re not terribly sad to lose even one American life to this wretched virus. It’s awful and sad and shouldn’t have happened this way. Thanks, China.
But how did the experts get this entire thing so wrong? Will there be an investigation into this so we can understand why the numbers were so wildly off and our media touted them without even a second glance to make sure everything was on the up and up?
And those people suggesting that “social distancing” brought the numbers down are feeding you a line of BS. Every single model – even the ones predicting 5.2 million Americans dead – factored in “100% social distancing” in the model and quarantine levels that we did not even come remotely close to in this country.
Some folks are speculating that perhaps pneumonia deaths were lumped in with the COVID deaths?
.@CDCgov chart says that as of May 1, 2020, total #COVID19 deaths are 37,308 (delayed due to reporting issues). Why is @JohnsHopkinsSPH number 65,068 today? Truly, I don't know. Note, too, that CDC says total deaths is 97% of expected, i.e. less than expected. Death rate of 0.3%? pic.twitter.com/36G2j9J9jA
— Martin Cowen (@mlcowen) May 2, 2020
Others, like conservative pundit and filmmaker Dinesh D’Souza, are suggesting that perhaps the “error” was more about funding than anything else.
CDC continues to peddle 60,000 plus deaths from #Coronavirus but this seems to be the padded number or “funding-oriented” statistic. Here’s the CDC’s real number, screen shot from its own site pic.twitter.com/wBWawQfLSL
— Dinesh D'Souza (@DineshDSouza) May 2, 2020
As more and more confusion swirls over “death numbers” the Daily Wire tried to explain what they think might be going on:
The CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) website for the coronavirus lists the total deaths from COVID-19 – the disease caused by the virus – as 37,308 in the United States. That’s a much lower number than what has been reported in the media or by other coronavirus trackers. For example, the Johns Hopkins University coronavirus tracker, lists the number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. at 65,645.
Even more confusing, a separate CDC website – dedicated exclusively to the novel coronavirus – lists the total COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. as 64,283. The NCHS website was updated on May 1, while the CDC’s coronavirus-specific website says it was updated on May 2.
The discrepancy seems to be an issue of how the data relating to deaths was coded at the state level, that is, what the cause of death on a death certificate says. The NCHS website lists 37,308 total deaths from death certificates listing COVID-19 as the cause, which includes COVID-19 as the presumed cause of death. The CDC gives some explanation why the NCHS data may be different from other reported numbers (emphasis original).
They go on to say that provisional death counts may not match counts from other sources, such as media reports or numbers from county health departments. Our counts often track 1–2 weeks behind other data for a number of reasons: Death certificates take time to be completed. There are many steps involved in completing and submitting a death certificate. Waiting for test results can create additional delays. States report at different rates. Currently, 63% of all U.S. deaths are reported within 10 days of the date of death, but there is significant variation among jurisdictions. It takes extra time to code COVID-19 deaths. While 80% of deaths are electronically processed and coded by NCHS within minutes, most deaths from COVID-19 must be coded manually, which takes an average of 7 days. Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths.
Let’s hope that everyone can get on the same page and get these numbers right so that people can get back (safely) to their lives before we all face an economic depression that could literally kill millions of people and destroy our children’s futures.
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